Major Equity Markets 2010: Fisher Capital Management Part 1

Sentiment in the equity markets has been steady over the past month.

Markets in Europe have been unable to resist downward pressure. The

Japanese market is also lower; but there has been resistance amongst

the emerging markets in South East Asia that are supported by more

favourable economic conditions.

The Chinese authorities are obviously determined to prevent their

economy from overheating. The global recovery will therefore only

proceed at a very slow pace, and there may well be setbacks along the

way, although a move into a “double-dip” recession still seems unlikely.

There is also an increased danger of a sovereign debt default by Greece,

and possibly even by Ireland. But the swing in sentiment should not go

too far. So long as monetary policy remains supportive, the global

economic recovery is likely to continue, and this will eventually produce

a sustainable improvement in equity prices. Patience will therefore be

the most important requirement amongst investors until some of the

uncertainties have been resolved.

The Fed is in a very difficult position. The statement after its latest OMC

meeting was cautious about economic prospects, conceding that “the

pace of recovery in output and in employment has slowed in recent

months” and was likely to be “more modest” than anticipated in the

near-term. But monetary policy was left basically unchanged at the

meeting, perhaps because of the “unusual uncertainty” about prospects,

and this caused some disappointment. However there is little doubt

that further monetary easing will be introduced if the position continues

to deteriorate, because the bank’s main priority is to try to maintain

some momentum in the economy. And fiscal policy is also likely to

remain supportive, despite the massive size of the existing deficit.

Congress has been reluctant to authorise additional spending

programmes; but there is intense political pressure ahead of the elections

in November, and further programmes seem likely.

The critical question for investors therefore is whether the continued

monetary and fiscal support will be enough. They have been prepared

to adopt a bullish attitude to the situation, and this mood has been

helped by an encouraging flow of corporate earnings results that have

often exceeded expectations, and confirmed that the corporate sector

has been coping well so far with a difficult situation.

The gloom should not be overdone. So long as monetary policy remains

supportive, we believe that the odds favour the continuation of the

slow recovery, and that this will eventually produce better market

conditions.

Mainland European markets have fallen back sharply over the past

month, after the strong rally. There has been evidence of a further

improvement in the economic background in the euro-zone, and second

quarter corporate results have generally been encouraging; but the

signs of weakness in the US economy and the slowdown in China has

raised doubts about whether the German export performance that has

been providing most of the momentum for the recovery can be

maintained; and there have also been renewed concerns about the

possibility of debt defaults amongst the weaker member countries of

the zone. The markets have therefore been unable to resist downward

pressure.

The euro-zone economy improved much faster than expected in the

second quarter of the year. Growth is estimated to have been around

the 1% level, the fastest quarterly level for three years; and this has

eased the fears about a move into a “double-dip” recession, at least for

the moment. But it is a two-speed recovery, with the German economy

estimated to have grown by 2.2% during the quarter, the Netherlands

economy by 0.9%, and the French economy by 0.6%, but with Spain

and Portugal basically unchanged and the Greek economy falling further

into recession. With domestic demand weak, it is therefore essential

that overseas demand remains buoyant if German exports are going

to continue to drive the overall economy forward; but this is now very

uncertain, and so growth projections for the rest of this year and for

2011 are still fairly cautious.

However the European Central Bank is maintaining its optimistic view

of prospects. Speaking before the latest figures were announced, the

chairman, Jean Claude Trichet, argued that the second quarter outturn

would be better than expected, that there would also be an encouraging

result in the third quarter, and that there was no prospect of a move

into a “double-dip” recession.

Fisher Capital Management Korea is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world. As a full service company Fisher Capital Management Korea provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

World Trade 2010: Fisher Capital Management

One of the more encouraging developments has been the rapid recovery

in the level of world trade. The recession in 2009 had a dramatic effect,

and the volume of world exports dropped by around 12%.

But largely because large parts of the global economy, and especially

China and other countries in South East Asia, were relatively unaffected

by the recession, the rebound in trading volumes had been very

impressive. There is already talk of reviving the Doha round of trade

liberalisation talks that collapsed in 2008. However it will be necessary

for relations between the US and China to improve substantially before

any real progress can be made, and present disagreements suggest that

progress will only be possible at a very slow pace, even if the global

economic recovery remains on track.

Major Equity Markets

Sentiment in the equity markets has been steady over the past month.

Markets in Europe have been unable to resist downward pressure. The

Japanese market is also lower; but there has been resistance amongst

the emerging markets in South East Asia that are supported by more

favourable economic conditions.

The Chinese authorities are obviously determined to prevent their

economy from overheating. The global recovery will therefore only

proceed at a very slow pace, and there may well be setbacks along the

way, although a move into a “double-dip” recession still seems unlikely.

There is also an increased danger of a sovereign debt default by Greece,

and possibly even by Ireland. But the swing in sentiment should not go

too far. So long as monetary policy remains supportive, the global

economic recovery is likely to continue, and this will eventually produce

a sustainable improvement in equity prices. Patience will therefore be

the most important requirement amongst investors until some of the

uncertainties have been resolved.

The Fed is in a very difficult position. The statement after its latest OMC

meeting was cautious about economic prospects, conceding that “the

pace of recovery in output and in employment has slowed in recent

months” and was likely to be “more modest” than anticipated in the

near-term. But monetary policy was left basically unchanged at the

meeting, perhaps because of the “unusual uncertainty” about prospects,

and this caused some disappointment. However there is little doubt

that further monetary easing will be introduced if the position continues

to deteriorate, because the bank’s main priority is to try to maintain

some momentum in the economy. And fiscal policy is also likely to

remain supportive, despite the massive size of the existing deficit.

Congress has been reluctant to authorise additional spending

programmes; but there is intense political pressure ahead of the elections

in November, and further programmes seem likely

Fisher Capital Management Korea is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world. As a full service company Fisher Capital Management Korea provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

Fisher Capital Management News: Commodity Markets 2010

The performance of the commodity markets remains very impressive.

Speculative activity is a major factor, and supply shortages, often the

result of adverse weather conditions, are also providing considerable

support; but there is clearly a view amongst both traders and investors

that the general level of prices is too low, and that they will move

higher. Over the longer-term that view is likely to prove to be justified.

Commodity markets have been extremely volatile over the past month,

rising strongly in the early part of the period, but falling back sharply

towards month-end concerns about the effects of the austerity measures

being introduced in Europe, and indications of a continuing slowdown

in China, have combined to increase fears but for most of the past

month traders and investors apparently decided that the gloom was

overdone; and commodity prices also benefited from some “safe haven”

buying by investment funds.

Base metal prices are still ending the month higher overall, but below

recent levels, with the further sharp rise in the tin price as the outstanding

feature; and food prices have also moved higher, with the continuing

surge in wheat prices as the outstanding feature of these markets, to

provide further support for the view that the era of cheap food is

coming to an end. The gold price has also improved, as investors have

sought “safe havens in the present storm”; but oil prices have fallen

back.

Base metal prices are closing higher again over the past month. Zinc

and tin prices still ended sharply higher, but overall improvements

elsewhere were fairly modest.

Chinese demand remains a critical factor in these markets. It is this

demand that has been the main driving force over recent months, and

that has pushed iron ore prices to record levels and enabled other metal

prices to recover from the lows of the recent recession.

Soft commodity markets have provided a mixed performance over the

past month, but prices are generally higher. The exceptions have been

the cocoa price, which has continued to fall as weather conditions in

the Ivory Coast have improved, crop estimates have been pushed higher,

and the effects of the technical squeeze created by the decision by

Armajaro, the London-based hedge fund, to take delivery of around

7% of the world’s annual cocoa bean production last month, have

eased; and soya-bean prices are also basically unchanged over the

month. But elsewhere there has been a sharp rise in Arabica coffee

prices, and a further improvement in the sugar price.

However the main interest over the month has been in the wheat

market, after the massive price gains, and also in other grain markets.

The most significant events during the month were the decision by the

Russian authorities to ban the export of wheat and other grains until

year-end because of the drought that has devastated crops and caused

widespread fires across the country; and to ask other neighbouring

countries to take similar action.

It is not yet clear how they will respond; but the action has already

created widespread concern.

Russia was the world’s third largest wheat exporter last year, sending

18.3 million tons abroad, and so the decision to ban exports for the

rest of the year has had a dramatic effect on prices. Attempts have been

made to limit the price gains, with the US Department of Agriculture

in particular indicating that US stockpiles of wheat are close to 30

million tons and at a 23 year high, and the UN Food and Agriculture

Organisation insisting that global stocks are more than adequate to

cope with the shortfall, even if other neighbouring countries join the

Russian ban.

But these countries were expected to supply around one quarter of

total global wheat exports this year, and so the panic conditions in the

markets have not been significantly eased. Evidence of significant

purchases of US grain by China for the first time in a decade have also

added to the concerns about the availability of global supplies, and

made it even more difficult to assess the full consequences of the Russian

decision; but it seems unlikely that the surge in the prices of wheat and

other grains in over.

After rising sharply in late-July and early-August, oil prices have

subsequently fallen back towards the $70 per barrel level. There have

been warnings from the International Energy Agency that “the short-

term global economic outlook is highly uncertain, presenting significant

downside risks to future oil demand growth”; there has been a cautious

view of future oil demand from OPEC; and also a report from the US

Department of Energy that US stockpiles of crude oil and refined

products have risen to their highest levels since weekly records began

in 1990. Much will depend on future demand in the US and in China;

but the fundamentals do not seem to point to an early and sustained

improvement in prices unless there is a serious deterioration in political

conditions in the Middle East.

The swing in sentiment towards a more cautious view of global economic

prospects, and the renewed concerns about sovereign debt defaults in

Europe, have provided further encouragement for investors to seek

“safe havens” in the present uncertain situation, and this has led to a

significant rally in the gold price over the past month.

The dollar has recovered well from weakness earlier in the month, and

so the fear of dollar weakness has not been a factor pushing the gold

price higher this month. The evidence that the sovereign debt crisis is

far from being resolved, and the indications of increased Chinese

buying of gold, have all helped to push the price higher. The latest

strength may well lead to a further period of profit-taking; but given

the present international situation, it would be unwise to assume that

the improving trend in precious metal prices is over.

Fisher Capital Management Korea is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world. As a full service company Fisher Capital Management Korea provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

Fisher Capital Equipment Update - Machine Components Industry in China Problems

Fisher Capital Equipment Management Update- Machine Components Industry in China Problems and their causes - the machinery, basic parts - construction machinery industry. Avoid online internet scams; get latest updates on Fisher Capital Equipment Management website. As our country on the basis of pieces of machinery in Machinery Industry Awareness of the importance of late, long-term lack of investment, leading the entire industry based on poor, weak economic foundation and strength of the weak. In particular, as the host country rises the level of basic pieces of machinery behind the main bottleneck is becoming more apparent. In recent years, although the introduction of technology, technological innovation, scientific research and development, our country has given some support, but with the current level of market demand and overseas, there remains no small gap, in particular in: less product variety, low level quality of instability, early failure rate, and poor reliability.

 China Machine Components product variety, small size, especially a big gap between high-end products can not meet the growing needs of the host. At present, various types of host based piece of performance indicators is roughly equivalent to the level of foreign 20th century 80s. Quality of instability, early failure rate, reliability is poor, the Achilles heel of basic items. Therefore, many OEMs to enhance the market competitiveness of its host, often choose to import the basis of supporting documents, resulting in domestic basic parts, especially the low-tech products, the domestic market share declined. Although China's exports of basic items has obvious advantages, but mainly labor-intensive products, the number of large, low-value, technology added value.

Present, China Machine Components Industry of the following main issues: First, redundant construction seriously, the low degree of specialization, not form scale, low economic efficiency, Machine Components, compared with the host enterprises to establish an initial financial and technical inputs required relatively few times in the national economic development period, have increased the number of basic parts manufacturer, also appeared along a large number of low-level duplicated construction, multi-point, volume is small, not form economies of scale. Basic pieces of business, while gradually independent of the OE, but most of the enterprise itself is large and, small but complete, low degree of specialization, the level of equipment is not high, the quality of instability, low economic efficiency. If China Bearing Annual output of three large enterprise sector bearing less than the sum of a well-known foreign companies 50%. The past two years, China built nearly one hundred Hydraulic Parts Plant, but the annual output of 300,000 or more only a few, the main product is Agricultural Machinery Matching. The company's annual output of Germany Rexroth hydraulic items 1.3 million, the Japanese oil research (strain) is also an annual output of 600,000 or more. Industrialized countries die of about 150 000 companies per capita output to 20 million, China's only 4 million to 50 thousand yuan. In recent years, with a variety of common development policies, the ownership, basic parts industry is experiencing increasingly focus from scattered to the intensive development process.

Fisher Capital Equipment Management Update- Machine Components Industry in China Problems and their causes - the machinery, basic parts - construction machinery industry Avoid online internet scams, get latest updates on Fisher Capital Equipment Management website.

Second, weak research and development, insufficient capital investment, technological progress is slow. Basic pieces of 70 different industries in the late 20th century, early 80s to early introduction of a number of foreign advanced technologies, but the lack of adequate absorption of the hardware and software investment. According to foreign experience, required for digestion and absorption of imported technology and capital ratio of approximately 1:7, and our understanding of this late, slow digestion and absorption steps. Technical strength of competition in the market is actually a contest. Have attached great importance to overseas, have increased investment, occupy high ground. Various well-known companies for research and development funds account for its Sell Amount of 4% to 5%, 10% in key areas. Although many institutions of higher learning in China at present engaged in research work, a lot of theoretical research, scientific research, patents, and papers have a very high level, but actual production is not tightly integrated, especially into commodities slow.

Third and related raw materials, backward technology, low level of technology and technological equipment the foundation of the development constraints.

Fasteners, chains, springs, bearings, molds and other steel products used by the poor quality specifications less direct impact on the quality of basic items, while the hydraulic pressure and hydraulic pressure castings and quality of products related to electronic control technology backward, but also directly affect the quality and reliability of hydraulic components. Mechanical parts are generally based on batch, mass production, but also more variety, high precision machining products, and therefore require high technology and equipment production, large investment. Foreign multi-use high efficiency and precision of the plane, line or soft line for efficient automated production. However, some basic pieces of our business by financial constraints input small businesses transform themselves poor, less advanced equipment not matching, affect product quality and quality.

Fisher Capital Equipment Update - Market slams Fisher and Paykel on profit Warning

The share market has come down hard on Fisher & Paykel Appliances - with its shares falling 40 per cent after the company issued a profit warning today.

The whiteware manufacturer's shares, which were worth $2.94 this time last year and worth $1 on Friday, went into free fall and are currently trading at just 60 cents, a 40 cent fall.

Earlier today the company said it expected a net profit of $25 million to $30m, down up to 54 per cent on last year.

Due to the deterioration in the New Zealand dollar, Fisher & Paykel Appliances' total bank debt grew $122 from March last year to $512m at the end of January. It was predicted to be $570m by the end of March.

It is now looking at reviewing its capital structure and alternative sources of capital.

Fisher Capital Equipment Update - Market slams Fisher and Paykel on profit Warning - The market was very concerned the company had to come back with a capital raising, which was unexpected, said Hamilton, Hindin, and Greene director Grant Williamson.

The home appliance market had dropped off in all areas Fisher & Paykel exported to and there did not appear to be too many signs of a turnaround in world housing at the moment, he said.

"I think investors are starting to say; how long is it going to be before conditions change for the company? I think that's the biggest concern."

Williamson said Fisher & Paykel Appliances' wares were sold into most new homes but when very few new homes being built it would have a serious effect on their sales.

A 40 per cent drop in share value was a big hit for the share price to take but that was the general state of the market.

"If any company disappoints the market then the market is very harsh on their share price and we have certainly seen that this morning with Fisher & Paykel Appliances."

The company announced it would not proceed with a capital note issue and was looking an alternative source of capital.

The directors were considering the merits of issuing equity, including to a cornerstone investor.

Williamson said he did not believe a capital notes rising would have been particularly well received.

He did not see any short term bounce in the price until there was clarification around the structure of equity rising. That was expected to be announced in early March.

"At the moment there's still a fair degree of selling in the market place, around the 60c level."- NZPA

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Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2 - The UK Emergency Budget

Fisher Capital Management Report  Part 2- The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much worse. The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in £13 billion. On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing public sector pay, indexing state benefits to the CPI rather than the faster-rising RPI and freezing child benefits. State pensions will be indexed to the higher of wages or the CPI but the pension age will

be raised to 66 fairly soon.

Interest rates are projected to remain low, with inflation absent; and it is possible that Quantitative Easing will need to be resumed but on present prospects this seems unlikely to be necessary. Another concern is with the regulative proposals. There is an antibank mentality developing in this coalition government, which is

most unfortunate; much of it seems to emanate from Vince Cable and the Lib Dems.

Yet a moment’s thought should be enough to convince one that we need bank credit expansion and a return to competition on the bank high street in order to foster recovery and enterprise. Ever tougher bank regulation is what was needed before, at the peak of   expansion, not now in the slough of recession giving way to recovery.

Talk of breaking up banks fails to recognise the natural economics of banks, which favours scale and risk-spreading. Talk of capping mortgage lending at modest percentages of income is also unfortunate when the UK want to see a revival of it’s housing market, now once again back in the doldrums.

A last area of concern is the state of the labour market. The UK do have near ‘full employment’ if one discounts the modest temporary effect of recession. But this only applies to those normally looking for work.

Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2 - The UK Emergency Budget: There is now a large group of people who  are claiming benefits of various sorts in order to stay out of the labour market. Disability benefit is one route;  nother is the having of children in order to get child benefits and related parenting allowances, with tragic consequences for some children.

Tightening up of this has been signalled in the budget but this has happened before, with no proper follow-through.

Another UK labour market problem is the resurgence of union power as Labour loosened the union laws passed before 1997. One key loosening was the 12-week rule, which allows workers to breach  their contracts with impunity when on strike until 12 weeks of strike have occurred. When strikes are designed for short periods for maximum disruption, this 12 week period can take a long time to trigger. During it the employing firm is unable to defend itself by recruiting a different labour force.

Under the pre-1997 legislation firms were able to dismiss workers in breach of contract, provided they did so in a non-discriminatory way. This led to a huge reduction in strikes and a large rise in UK productivity, to the great general benefit.

As we have seen in recent years, certain unions are exploiting this 12-week rule to damage the economy — the classic case has been the BA dispute where UNITE has persisted in attempting to defend well-above market wages for cabin crew.

In sum the budget was a decent start in restoring fiscal sanity. But only a start.

The UK now needs urgent attention to the creation of a proper tax system with low marginal rates but generating a reliable revenue source — the two are perfectly compatible. It needs sense and restraint in regulation. Finally they need to reform their labour market yet again.

Fisher Capital Updates - Bechtel-Enka Completes Albanian Motorway

Fisher Capital Equipment Management News Updates - TIRANA, ALBANIA -  Bechtel and joint-venture partner Enka today completed construction on the Albanian Motorway, a 37-mile (61-km), four-lane highway that stretches from central Albania to the to Kosovo border. The motorway is now open to traffic. 

Construction Project Management and Civil Engineering Careers scams. Keep posted and don’t be a victim. 

The end of construction was marked by a ceremony to open a second tunnel bore, the final section of the motorway. Ministers of transport from Albania and Kosovo, and additional senior officials from both countries, attended the opening. Speaking on behalf of the Albanian government, Sokol Olldashi, the minister of transport and telecommunications, thanked Bechtel-Enka for its commitment and the quality of work performed during construction of the motorway.

The motorway is the central leg of a 106-mile (171-km) highway traversing the country from the Adriatic Sea to the northeastern village of Kalimash near Kosovo. The new roadway cuts travel time along the route from six to two hours, boosting coastal trade and northeast tourism. The motorway also provides a vital connection within Albania and across the region, linking markets to the Adriatic port of Durres and contributing to economic growth as Albania prepares for accession to the European Union.

The Albanian Motorway is one of the largest-ever infrastructure projects in the country and presented many engineering challenges due to complexities of the geology in the region and the fast-track construction schedule. The motorway includes a 3.4-mile (5.5-km) twin bore tunnel and 29 bridges built in a rocky, mountainous region.

During construction, the project was the largest employer in the area, with Albanians accounting for two thirds of the workforce.

Fisher Capital Equipment Management News Updates - Bechtel (BEK tl) is the world's No. 1 choice for engineering, construction, and project management. Construction Project Management and Civil Engineering Careers scams. Keep posted and don’t be a victim. 

Our diverse portfolio encompasses energy, transportation, communications, mining, oil and gas, and government services. We currently have projects in dozens of locations worldwide, from Alaska to Australia. No matter how challenging a project or how remote its location, chances are Bechtel can handle it. That's because we bring an unmatched combination of knowledge, skill, experience, and customer commitment to every job.

We have had record revenues for the past five years, and Engineering News-Record (ENR) has named Bechtel the top U.S. construction contractor for 12 straight years.

While we work for governments and commercial customers, our projects have helped grow local economies and improve the quality of life for communities and people around the world. Time and again our work has demonstrated that the only limits on human achievement are those that we place on ourselves. 

Privately owned with headquarters in San Francisco, we have offices around the world and 49,000 employees. In 2009, we had revenues of $30.8 billion and booked new work valued at $20.3 billion.

Ethics 

Bechtel's culture is grounded in integrity and respect. This means adhering to the highest standards of ethics. Our reputation as an ethical company is one of our most valuable assets. We stand by everything we do.  

Quality

At Bechtel, quality means doing the job right the first time.  We've always delivered quality work, and we are continually striving to improve our performance through Six Sigma and other initiatives.

Safety 

Bechtel has a world-class safety program, and it pays off. Nearly 90 percent of our projects complete each year without a lost-time accident. Our philosophy is simple—every accident, and therefore every injury, is preventable. 

Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter

Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea, Brazil’s Economy - The brief recession of 2009 has given way to a robust increase in consumer demand and recovery in investment in Brazil in 2010. The economy is likely to grow 5.5% this year. GDP grew 2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2009 and fell 0.2% for the whole of 2009 compared with 2008.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea Investing: - The central bank did not raise its target overnight interest rate, the so-called Selic rate, unchanged leaving it at 8.75% a year. This was expected as the presidential election is nearing. The rate fell from 13.75% to 8.75% between December 2008 and July 2009. By the year-end, the rate is expected to rise by 250 basis points to curb inflation.

Even though the US and Brazil are not as open an economy as one would believe. Trade accounts for approximately 14% for both the countries. US cotton subsidies had been a bone of contention for the two countries. The US was accused of excessive cotton subsidies by Brazil. After eight years of litigation at the World Trade Organization Brazil has won the case and Brazil’s move to raise tariffs on a wide range of American goods has a potential of starting a new front in the trade war with the US over cotton subsidies. Overall, the issue is still not blown out of proportion as the two countries are engaged on other fronts.

Fisher Capital Management Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter Investment - Brazil’s government announced a R$958.9bn programme of investments in infrastructure for 2011 to 2014. The program is known as the PAC 2 … the Portuguese acronym for accelerated growth programme, part two … to increase Brazil’s investment rate and its potential for economic growth during the period of the next government, which begins on January 1 2011.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Investment News: Henrique Meirelles who provided monetary stability to Brazil is all set to stand for election either as a Vice President or a senator. President Lula may choose him to run for the Vice President office to send a message that macroeconomic stability will be maintained under Ms Rousseff, presidential nominee of Mr. Lula’s party in the October election.

Fisher Capital is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world.

As a full service company Fisher Capital provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

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